East
Timor and Climate Change: Security and Sustainable Development
Merrilyn Wasson
International Human Dimensions of Global
Environmental Change Program: UNESCO/ICSU
The
international and scientific consensus that climate change is a reality, which is already making an impact is
supported by observable and predicted trends. In response to the risk to human
security, a UN sponsored Frame work Convention on Climate Change has been
ratified. However, the negotiation of its Protocol, which will make reductions
in emissions of Greenhouse gases a legally binding commitment for industrial,
developed nations, has slowed. This gives East Timor an opportunity to
participate in the negotation of the
Protocol.
The
underlying reality of the 21 st Century
is that development cannot be considered ‘sustainable’ unless it takes into
account the likely impact of climate change. Sustainable development is
development which, in addition to other objectives, either seeks to reduce
emissions of the greenhouse gases that are the cause of climate variations, or
which aims to assist the nation to adapt to the projected effects of climate
change.
As a
consequence, the Protocol to the Climate Change Convention contains two funding
mechanisms dedicated to sustainable development, greenhouse gas reductions and
adaptation aimed at reducing the risk to human security.
East
Timor is a nation which is particularly vulnerable to climate variations, from
a combination of sea level rise, a predicted increase in the frequency and
severity of El Nino droughts and changes to monsoonal patterns. To the present
it has made a very small contribution to the problem, but the export of fossil
fuels from the Timor Gap will change that. Yet this also gives East Timor a
distinct opportunity to assist with reduction in global emissions, while
insisting on sustainable growth which minimises the risk
From
encouraging the export and domestic use of liquid gas in preference to
Petroleum, to using the Protocol funding mechanisms to support the introduction
of new tidal energy technology, East ‘s energy sector is in an excellent position
to become a model of sustainable growth. The nation may also use mangrove
rehabilitation as a multi purpose sustainable development that assists with
coastal sea level rise problems, the need for increased fish stocks and acts as
an ‘absorber’ or sink of CO2 . Other developments such as crop adaptation to
cope with climate variability and sustainable reforestation are also worth
investing in, for the sake of the needs of the East Timorese as well as for
Export. The purpose of the draft paper is to stimulate thought and discussion
about the merits of these and other options, while reinforcing the need to
consider climate change projections in all calculations of sustainable economic
growth.
1. Introduction: Sustainable Development
in Changing Climatic Conditions
It is
a reality of the 21stCentury that planning for sustainable
development must take into account the changes to the Earth’s climate and
ecosystems that are the result of non-sustainable emissions of greenhouse gases
into the atmosphere. The projections are
stark. Carbon dioxide is the
most prevalent and problematic of the greenhouse gases. It has now reached a
concentration in the earth’s atmosphere that is approximately 66% higher than
at any time during the existence of humans on the planet. Much smaller
increases in CO2 in the past historical
record have resulted in significant disturbances to the planet’s climate
systems.
Accordingly,
almost every nation has ratified the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) and accepted that:
§
climate
change is a reality and its effects are already noticeable and profound, and
§
climate
change is a serious threat to food and water security, and therefore to human
health and security, and
§
it
is therefore a hazard to economic growth and sustainable livelihoods.
Despite
this international consensus, the negotiation of the Protocol to the Convention
, which will commit industrialised nations to an average 6% reduction on 1990
levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, broke down in November, 2000.
Negotiations will resume in mid 2001, in an attempt to resolve the disputed
details of the Protocol.
This
delay in the negotiations gives East Timor the chance to contribute to the
debate on the controversial issues of
the Protocol, an opportunity which should be seized. For East Timor not only
faces serious problems from climate change, but the nation has much to gain
from a strategy that simultaneously promotes sustainable development and
assists the island to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Funding
for sustainable development is an integral part of the Convention on Climate
Change and its Protocol. One financial provision of the Protocol, the Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM), is dedicated to promoting sustainable growth and
reducing greenhouse emissions in developing nations. A second provision, the
‘Adaptation and Mitigation Fund’ is for nations that are especially vulnerable
to the impact of climate change. East Timor will benefit from both sources of
funding.
1.1 The Theme:
Using the financial provisions of the
Protocol to fund sustainable development that assists East Timor to reduce GHG
emissions and adapt to the impact of climate change is the theme of this paper.
What
follows is a summary analysis of three factors:
§
the
predicted impacts of climate change in the region that includes this nation;
§
the
likely contribution that East Timor will make to global GHG emissions, and
§
the
Protocol’s funding provisions for sustainable development, the important
criteria being that the development must also reduce GHG emissions and/or
concentrations of the gases in the atmosphere.
With
this information, it is possible to outline a strategy for sustainable
development that uses the Protocol’s funding mechanisms, which is particularly
suited to mitigate the risks to the security and sustainable livelihoods of
East Timorese from the disruptions of climate Change
2.0 The
Vulnerability of East Timor to Climate Change
2.1 Coastal Impacts: Rising Sea Level:
Reduction in Fish Habitats:
East
Timor shares the vulnerability of all island nations to sea level rise that
accompanies the melting of the ice cover of Antartica and the Arctic Polar ice
cap. That melting is underway.
One
early effect for East Timor will therefore be a shifting coastline and a
partial loss of the tidal ecosystems that are essential for fish breeding
habitats, most notably mangroves and seagrasses.(Fox, Applegate and Wasson,
2000)
This
grim scenario for shoreline fish habitats is worsened by the reality that the
first ecosystem to show signs of global disintegration from an increase in CO2 absorbed by tthe oceans are
corals. While there is a scientific dispute about the processed by which
increased CO2 in the oceans destroys corals, there is
no dispute about the reality that climate change is a major factor in the
stress and rapid decline of coral ecosystems thoughout the globe.
The
coral ecosystems of the Arafura and Timor Seas and the Sunda Shelf are no
exception, and since the El Nino episode of 1997/98 have experienced some of
the worst bleaching and decline of all tropical coral reefs (Wilkinson et al
2000)..
Mangroves, seagrasses and corals are important for another reason, they have the ability to ‘sink’ or reduce the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere. (Asuki 1998) When stressed or destroyed, however, they emit that carbon back into the atmosphere. Sustainable development strategies to counter the loss of these ecosystems and increase fish stocks must therefore be a priority for the funding mechanisms of the Protocol. While this applies to most tropical developing nations, East Timor has some strategic advantages to be discussed below.
2.2 Climate Variability, Crops and
Vegetation:
A
longer term impact of concern is the effect that climate variations will have
on agriculture. The majority of nations which have ratified the Convention are
likely to be effected. Whether it is wet rice production in Southeast Asia and
China, or dry wheat production in India, Australia, the US and so on, crops
rely on a degree of certainty that the climate system provides.
As
climate variability is a feature of climate change, the global impact on food
security is of such concern that it is a major motivating factor in the
international acceptance of the need to reduce emissions and slow the pace of
Climate Change.
Where
the national or regional climate relies on a monsoon, the risk is greatest.
East Timor is one nation affected by monsoonal patterns.
A
scientific question that featured prominently in the debates over the Protocol
is “Will species of trees, other biodiversity and crops be able to adapt to
changing and highly variable climate patterns.” It is an issue that is discussed in the Special Report on Land Use, Land-use Change and Forests (IPCC 2000), prepared for the recent negotations
of the Climate Change Protocol.
It is feared that in a time span of less that
fifty years, the inability of flora and fauna and crops to cope with climate
variability will be a major problem, and as a consequence, there will be a significant
loss of forests and crops.
2.3 Increase in El Nino Frequency
In
common with Southeast Asia and the Pacific, East Timor and its closest
neighbours are affected by the droughts that accompany El Nino events. Caused
by a hot pool of water in the Pacific Ocean, it is now thought that the
frequency and severity of El Nino events may be increased by climate change. (CSIRO 1999).
Unfortunately
for all the nations affected by El Nino events, this may mean that the failure
of some tree and crop species to adapt to climate change may occur ealier than
in the period predicted by the Special Report on Land Use, Land-use Change and Forests (IPCC 2000). As with the impact on the coastal
ecosystems, the predicted changes to the crops, tree species and biodiversity of East Timor is grim one.
Together, these projections present a bleak outlook for food and water security, health and sustainable livelihoods of the East Timorese population, unless strategies for sustainable development which also assist the nation to adapt to increased climate variations are found.
2.4 East Timor’s Contribution to
Greenhouse Gas Emissions. East
Timor’s contribution to global GHG emissions has almost certainly been
negligible While no study of national sources and sinks of greenhouse gases has
yet been done, it is reasonable to assume that some methane (CH4) is emitted
from agriculture and livestock, and
some Co2
from land and forest clearing. The extent to which regrowth and natural sinks
of carbon compensate for these emissions is also not known.
However, this
is about to change, as East Timor rightfully takes control of fossil fuel
sources in the area of the Timor gap and the Arafura that falls within the
nations Exclusive Economic Zone.
Petroleum and Liquid Gas : Producion and export of petroleum and
liquid gas will increase East Timor’s national GHG emissions. However, it also presents an opportunity to promote
sustainable development which also reduces carbon emissions, at least where the
export of liquid gas is concerned. The fossil fuels, coal, petroleum and liquid
gas, which are the major contributor to human induced carbon emissions. However
liquid gas produces the least CO2 per unit of energy, and replacing coal and
petroleum with liquid gas reduces the amount of CO2 emitted. Using and
exporting liquid gas is a more sustainable option for energy is discussed below
3.0 The Protocol and its Mechanisms for funding Sustainable Development
In the heat
of the debates over the details of the Climate Convention’s Protocol, a most
fundamental objective of the UNFCCC is often forgotten. The Climate Change
Convention has two objectives: one is to reduce GHG emissions into the
atmosphere, the other is the promotion of Sustainable Development (Art.2
UNFCCC, Preamble to the Kyoto Protocol).
It was at the
behest of the G77 bloc of developing nations that assistance with sustainable
economic growth became embedded in the Convention and its Protocol, as the
price for cooperation with GHG emission reduction. The Clean Development Mechanism
(Art.12 of the Kyoto Protocol) is the means by which the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change and its Protocol achieve the dual objectives of
reducing GHG emissions and promoting sustainable development.
3.1 The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in Summary
The
CDM is an investment by a private or public enterprise from an Annex 1 nation,
in a project in the host developing nation which provides the service of GHG
emission reduction. The host nation, company or community maintains full or part
ownership of the project and the profits from it, while the investor receives
credits for the GHG reductions.
CDM investment: Advantages for Developing Nations
§
As foreign
direct investment, CDM funding does not increase national debt, a fact that makes
it very acceptable form of investment for developing nations.
§
Approval
for the CDM project is at the discretion of the host nation, which is expected
to be able to direct investment into national priority areas.
§
The CDM
project must meet the criterion of sustainability and it is expected to provide
collateral socio-economic or ecological benefits.
The Key features of the
CDM are:
* investment must promote sustainable development in the host nation.
(12.2) and the host nation must benefit from the project activities resulting
in emission reductions (12.3 (a).
* A
CDM project must provide real, measurable and long-term benefits related to the
mitigation of climate change (12.5. (c).
* The
'certified emission reductions' achieved by the CDM projects are to assist
Annex nations to comply with their emission limitation targets (12.3(b)).
(Obviously, the same project will reduce the net GHG emissions of the host
developing nation).
* CDM
projects may be established from the year 2000, and the carbon 'credits' obtained
'banked' by the investing company or nation, to help meet their emissions
reduction target for the first commitment period, between 2008 and 2112(12.10).
* The
certified emission reductions (CER) which CDM projects produce will be subject
to verification by an Executive Board of the CDM, set up by the Parties to the
Protocol (12.9)
* All
projects must be voluntary between the Parties (12.5(a)).
Additionality The 'additional' requirement
is that there must be: 'reductions in emissions that are in addition to any
that would occur in the absence of the certified project activity' (12.5(c)).
This has caused some confusion. The IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, prepared for the parties
to the Protocol, identifies three forms
of 'evidence' that establish additionality in a project:
§
Technological
-the introduction of new technology or practices that result in emission
reduction in comparison with currently used technology or practices.
§
Institutional
- the removal of institutional constraints for the purpose of the project; and
§
Financial-
the process of assuring a reduction in GHG's has incurred additional costs, in
comparison with business-as -usual practice. [IPCC 2000].
In
addition to the project profits, the
socio-economic and ecological collateral, the technology transfer and
the reduction in emissions from the CDM project, some host developing nations
are expected to benefit from the CDM in
one other essential respect , the adaptation fund.
3.3 The Adaptation Fund and East Timor
The Kyoto
Protocol envisages a tax on its ‘flexibility mechanisms’, including the CDM,
The other flexibility mechanisms, Emissions Trading (Art 17) and the Joint
Implementation Mechanism involve trading in emissions reductions between Annex I
nations.only. The purpose of this tax is to establish the “Adaptation Fund”
which will be used to assist developing nations 'particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change to
meet the costs of adaptation' (Art. 12.8). East Timor is clearly in the
category of being particularly vulnerable to adverse affects.
4.0 Sustainable Development Strategies
for Climate change adaptation
To
sum up, East Timor’s development is at risk from the negative impacts of
climate change, with sea level rise and severe climate variabililty presenting a significant threat to the
nation’s food and water security and human health as well as sustained economic
growth. East Timor’s contribution to the problem of human induced emissions has
been minor, though the possession and export of petroleum and liquid gas will
change that.
What
is clear is that planning for sustainable development that does not include
planning for climate change adaptation is unlikely to be ‘sustainable’ in the
short, medium and long term
The
options for sustainable development briefly outlined here are based on concepts
which have been applied in tropical developing island nations facing similar
risks and with some similarities in ecosystems. But there will be options
unique to the nation, and the CDM encourages each nation to work out its
priorities. Before discussing the use of the CDM and the Adaptation fund, there
are options generated by East Timor’s resources that may be used as part of a
national growth strategy>
4.1 Liquid Gas
Resources
As
discussed above, liquid gas is a source of CO2 emissions, but it is a form of
energy which emits much less than either coal or petroleum. Therefore,
replacing either coal or petroleum with liquid gas counts as an emission
reduction. Assuming that the Timor gap yields liquid gas as well as petroleum,
then East Timor will be benefiting both
its own economy and security and that of the globe by promoting the export of
the liquid gas.
There
is a growing demand for liquid gas in the Asia Pacific region, driven by
climate concerns and by economic efficiency, so this strategy is certain to
yield positive results. It is moreover, one that the ‘Energy Companies’
operating in the Timor gap are keen to pursue with the future East Timorese
government.
4.2 Sustainable
Energy from Tides
East Timor may wish to pursue non-fossil fuel
energy sources, through either CDM investment in a sustainable energy project
or by the Adaptation fund. In areas where the tidal differences are Tidal
energy has long been an attractive option for nations with substantial tidal
variations; new technology makes this an even more attractive, low costs and
emission free energy option for islands.
4.3 Mangrove Reforestation: CDM Investment with outstanding Socio- economic and Ecological Collateral Benefits
Over
50% of the world's Mangrove forests have been destroyed, (WRI 2000)and with
them a fish breeding habitat, a filter of soil carbon and a protector of other
habitats, notably sea grasses and coral reefs [Ayukai (ed.), 1998].. Without
the filter of mangroves, sediment from the coasts contribute to fish habitat
destruction, to the impoverishment of coastal communities, the poorest and most
vulnerable of socio-economic groups. Mangroves are essential to reversing fish
habitat loss, and to restoring the coastal fishing industries. Mangroves are
now regarded as a 'keystone species' for tropical coastal ecosystems. [Fox,
Applegate and Wasson (ed) 2000].
Of especial significance to an island nation like East Timor is the ability of mangroves to store coastal sediment. There is now evidence that mangroves may also have a role in slowing and assisting coasts to adapt to sea level rise. What is certain is that mangrove forests are not only a vital fish habitiat, but they protect adjacent fish habitiats, seagrasses and corals from pollution.
4.3.1 Carbon sequestration in mangrove ecosystems, seagrasses and
corals
Between
1996 and 1998, experiments were conducted by the Japanese power utility KEPCO
and the Australian Institute of Marine Science to determine the Carbon
sequestration capacity of mangroves. The experiments were conducted in tropical
Australia on a coastal strip adjacent to the area with the highest rate of land
clearing, to emulate conditions in Southeast Asia. The results of these
experiments were expressed in one phrase: the carbon stock per unit area of the
mangrove ecosystem is enormous. The reason is that mangroves store carbon both
above and below ground. [Ayukai 1998].
It
should be noted that it is the entire mangrove ecosystem that acts as a sink,
as mangroves themselves are slow growing. The carbon that is being stored is
drawn not only from the atmosphere, but also from organic soil run-off that
would otherwise enter the atmosphere or the coastal habitats. Permanent mangrove
reforestation probably qualifies among the highest yield form of sink
sequestration.
4.3.2 Socio-economic Collateral Benefits
from Mangrove Regeneration
Community based sustainable development The ecological benefits
discussed above, from the protection of sea grass and coral reef fish habitats
from land sediment flows and the restoration of a major fish habitat in
mangrove swamps themselves, result in the socio-economic benefits of the
restoration of the livelihood of coastal fishing communities. This can occur
immediately with the employment of villages in the establishment phase of the
mangrove reforestation project. It will also contribute to the long term
survival of the fishing industry.
§
Exports of mariculture and
fish The Asia
Pacific region now cannot supply the
demand for fish. It is possible to increase the export of fish from
mangrove based mariculture, which is economically more efficient than
aquaculture. The removal of mangroves to make way for shrimp aquaculture is now
regarded as unnecessary, since mangroves can support the farming of multiple
species [Ayukai (ed.), 1998].
§
Potential Investors Japanese investment in
Mangrove CDM projects can almost be guaranteed, as the interest of
Japanese-based companies in Mangrove experiments indicates. For dwindling fish
stocks within Southeast Asia and the Asia- Pacific is a major concern for
investors from a nation where fish is a dietary staple. Australian companies
operating in the Timor and Arafura Seas are also indicating an interest in funding
mangrove rehabilitation in exchange for Carbon credits.
4.3 Reforestation
The area available for reforestation and
sustainable production forestry may be limited in East Timor but is worth
investigating as an option, for reforestation and rehabilitation of degraded
forests has the effect of sequestering carbon from the atmosphere.
CDM
projects established with the purpose of rehabilitating degraded forests to the
standard of natural or production forests, and CDM projects for the
establishment of industrial plantations, therefore have the combined effect of
reducing concentrations of carbon in the area and establishing a much needed
export industry in the region.
4.3.1 Rehabilitation of Degraded Forests :Ecological and Economic
Benefits
There
are differences between the ecological
and socio-economic benefits from the rehabilitation of severely degraded forest
for selective, low impact logging and the establishment of industrial plantations on afforested areas.
In general, the former provides more ecological collateral benefits including:
*
Improvement in water quality as a consequence of regrowth. This is one reason
why China is directing CDM investment into rehabilitation and reforestation
around river catchments.
*
Soil stabilization and improved nutrient quality of soil biomass.
*
Qualified restoration of biodiversity. Since ecosystems are dynamic, it is
unlikely that the recovery of a forest will result in identical flora
composition, but it is likely to
support an increase in both flora and fauna biodiversity.
*Given
the greater capacity of tropical forests and tropical species to sequester
carbon, CDM investment in either the rehabilitation of natural forest or in
industrial plantations of tropical hardwood species, should yield high returns in
credits for CER units.
*Reforestation/rehabilitation
sequestration projects will probably have the additional investment benefit of
carbon storage during the project cycle. Low impact harvesting on maturity and
using the timber harvested for durable wood products such as paneling, building
and construction and furniture, all result in long term carbon storage.
4.3.2
Plantations, Soil Conservation
and Full Carbon Accounting
Single
species plantations produce less ecological side benefits, but have many
socio-economic benefits, in the form of employment and timber products for
domestic and global markets.
With
single species plantations, loss of soil can reduce the carbon sequestered by
the growing trees. As tropical soils are generally low in nutrients repeated growth cycles followed by heavy
impact harvesting have had negative impacts on soil quality, in addition to
exacerbating the problem of soil run-off. Where burning has been used to clear
land for plantations, soil run-off increases tenfold and the water retention
capacity of the soil is reduced [Schweithelm, 1999]
As a
consequence of these problems, it is probable that assessing the CER of
plantation sink projects will require the use of 'full carbon accounting',
which offsets emissions from soils disturbed during harvesting as against the
sequestration and storage of the trees.
This
requirement will encourage the use of soil conservation techniques at sensitive
stages of the project cycle, including mulching litter and placing it over the
soil to maintain organic carbon and other nutrients and re-planting the stock
in the mulch. The result is reduced run-off, little need for fertilizer and a
net reduction in soil emissions to complement the atmospheric emissions
reductions [Bruenig 1996].
The contribution of CDM project investment to
the long term sustainability of forest ecosystems and to forest products for
both the domestic market and for exports
has both ecological and socio-economic benefits for East Timor, benefits
that will be maximized if what is exported has value added in the nation..
However, controversy has surrounded CDM investment in sustainable forestry,
because of the ‘reversibility’ of forest projects (they can become sources of
emissions unless sustainable forestry is carefully practiced) Uncertainty over
the capacity of some species to adapt adds to the debate. Mangrove ecosystem rehabilitation is much
less controversial, as mangroves will usually be planted as the basis for other
commercial activities such as the restoration of fishing grounds and
mariculture.
4.4 Biotechnology
and Crop Adaptation
Crops are
essential for sustainable livelihoods, yet are a source of methane, one of the
greenhouse gases. An appropriate use of funding from either CDM project
investment or the Adaptation and mitigation fund is the genetic emgineering of
crops with the aims of:
§
Reducing the methane and other
greenhouse gases emitted;
§
Increasing food security by
producing plant breeds that are able to resist extreme climate variations; and
§
Increasing the yield per acre,
while minimising the drain on soil nutrients.
Conclusion
East
Timor is in a unique position to base its economy on sustainable economic
growth that enables the island nation to adapt to and minimise the impact of
climate change. As a nation whose food,
water and human security is very vulnerable to the risks of sea level rise and
extreme climate variability, East Timor should be able to attract
significant funding from the provisions
in the Protocol to the Climate Change Convention for greenhouse gas emission
reducing sustainable development.
The
existence of petroleum and liquid gas in the Timor gap may well make East Timor a net emitter of carbon, but it
also gives future governments of Timor a unique opportunity to put pressure on
the Energy companies to maximise the use of liquid gas, as fossil fuel with the
lowest emissions per energy unit.
It
also places the nation in an excellent position to negotiate Clean Development
Projects in other sectors including mangrove and fish habitat rehabilitation,
reforestation, plantations, climate variation resistant crops and new tidal
energy technologies. The essential theme of all sustainable development is that
it must take into account, and minimise the impact of climate change.
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